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Argentine economic outlook

State of the real economy in 2025

  • In the third quarter of 2025, Argentina’s GDP recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%. The positive economic performance during the third quarter of 2025 was determined by the
  • growth of investment (10.3% year on year), exports (10.2%), private consumption (5.3%) and public consumption (1.7%).
  • According to the monthly estimator of economic activity (EMAE, for its acronym in Spanish), in October 2025 the Argentine economy continued to grow. In that month, the activity rose 3.2% compared to October 2024.
  • The industrial production index (IPI) had a 3.1% year-on-year increase in the January-October period.
  • The synthetic indicator of construction activity (ISAC, for its acronym in Spanish) went up 7.9% YoY in the first ten months of 2025.
  • Installed industrial capacity utilisation (UCII, for its acronym in Spanish) during October 2025 was 61.0%, 2.0 p.p. lower than the same month in 2024.
  • The unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2025 reached 6.6% of the economically active population (EAP), 0.3 p.p. less than that recorded in the same period of 2024; the activity rate stood at 48.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3 p.p.
  • In the first half of 2025, 31.6% of the population was below the poverty line, while 6.9% of the people were in extreme poverty. This is a decrease of 21.3 p.p. with respect to the same period in 2024. Extreme poverty, on the other hand, decreased 11.2 p.p. YoY.
  • In November 2025, the variation in the inflation rate reached 2.5%; the accumulated variation in the first eleven months of the year was 27.9% and the year-on-year variation reached 31.4%.
  • Between January and November 2025, exports of goods totalised USD 79.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Imports, on the other hand, totalled USD 70.2 billion (with a 26.8% YoY growth). The trade balance in this period reached a surplus of USD 9.4 billion.
  • In the third quarter of 2025, exports of services amounted to USD 4.5 billion and imports to USD 7.1 billion, resulting in a deficit of USD 2.6 billion.
  • Between July and September 2025 the current account had a negative balance of USD 1.6 billion (0.9% of GDP).
  • On the last business day of 2025, the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA, for its acronym in Spanish) reached USD 41.2 billion, representing an increase of USD 11.6 billion (39.0%) from the data at the end of 2024.
  • The National Public Sector (NPS) accumulated a financial surplus of approximately 0.6% of GDP (primary surplus of approximately 1.7% of GDP) in the first eleven months of 2025.
  • Public debt by 30 September 2025 amounted to USD 454.0 billion (78.2% of GDP), a 1.8 p.p. rise over the value of the second quarter

You can access the complete report on the attached document.

 

 

Updated date: 19/02/2026